Friday 31 July 2020 at 7pm in central Tokyo: video discussion with Lord Martin Rees
All Trinity members – Fellows, Past Fellows, students, alumni very welcome
On Friday 31 July 2020 at 7pm we will meet in central Tokyo.
Lord Martin Rees, former Master of Trinity, has very generously agreed to hold a video discussion with us. Martin kindly offers to answer our questions! This and other Trinity in Japan discussions are published on our YouTube channel:
Of course, Martin’s field is astronomy, as former Master Martin knows much more about Trinity than all of us together, and recently Martin has founded the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge University: https://www.cser.ac.uk. Martin’s latest book “On the future: prospects for humanity” has just appeared also in Japanese translation:
If you like to ask Martin questions during our video discussions, best would be if you prepare the questions beforehand.
Martin has written an extensive article on his views on Covid-19 impact on Universities, and how Universities should adapt better to the needs of students in our changed world.
You can read Martin’s article here, and I suggest we don’t ask questions which Martin has already answered in this article:
Lord Martin Rees: “UNIVERSITIES MUST ADAPT TO CHANGING NEEDS OF STUDENTS”
7pm – arrival, please be punctual, so that we can start the video discussion with Martin Rees on time
7:15pm – 7:40pm video discussion with Lord Martin Rees.
7:45pm – 9:30pm dinner
after 9:30pm – nijikai drinks nearby (not included)
Cost of this meeting will be YEN 10,000 including Kaiseki banquet-style dinner and unlimited drinks from a fixed list. We will meet in central Tokyo.
Registration and prepayment until Friday 24 July 2020. I will send location details and account details for prepayment to those who register.
Given the Covid-19 situation we will follow all Government and restaurant rules on hygiene. If the situation changes and it becomes necessary to postpone I will notify those who have registered.
Lord Martin Rees
Martin achieved many discoveries in astrophysics and astronomy including the origin of cosmic background radiation black holes, quasars, and gamma ray bursts. Martin is Astronomer Royal, was Master of Trinity College, and President of the Royal Society. Over his long career and today, Martin had and has many important leadership positions, and has received many prizes and distinctions.
Friday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin ReesFriday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin ReesFriday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin ReesFriday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin ReesFriday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin ReesFriday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin ReesFriday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin ReesFriday 31 July 2020 Trinity in Japan: discussion with Lord Martin Rees
Enquiries
If you are Trinity College Cambridge Fellow or member living in or visiting Japan please join us. To register, or for any enquiries contact us here:
Lord Martin Rees, Baron Rees of Ludlow OM FRS, Master of Trinity College 2004-2012
Lord Martin Rees: “The world in 2050 – and beyond”
Lord Martin Rees, Master of Trinity College 2004-2012, gave a public lecture at the Japan Academy in Tokyo on the topic “The world in 2050 – and beyond” on Wednesday 4 October 2017 at 14:30.
notes written by Gerhard Fasol, based on Lord Martin Rees’ lecture notes and Gerhard Fasol’s notes taken during the lecture
This century is special – a new geological era, the Anthropocene
Earth existed for 45 million centuries, humans a few thousand centuries. This century is special: we are in a new epoch, the Anthropocene, its the first century where the future of earth depends on humans.
Humans could degrade the biosphere, or cause misdirected technology to destroy or diminish civilisation.
Martin Rees has written a book on these issues, the same book is entitled “Our final century” in the UK, and “Our final hour” in the USA, reflecting the contrast of British understatement and American emphasis on urgency.
Martin Rees did not think that humanity would extinguish itself, but feared that humans would be lucky to avoid serious setbacks, and nuclear armageddon was closely avoided during the cold war.
Nuclear weapons are based on 20th century science, in the 21th century we have created new existential risks based on bio, cyber and AI.
Population growth, urbanization and food
World population was about 3 billion in 1960, now exceeds 7 billion, and is forecast to reach 9 billion by 2050.
Urbanization continues, predictions are that 70% of people will live in cities by 2050, requiring excellence of governance.
Discussing population growth has become taboo, as predictions in the 1970s by the Club of Rome and others have proven wrong. Food shortages were predicted, improvements in food production technology prevented disasters.
Bio diversity: “mass extinction is the sin that future generations will least forgive us for”
Conserving our variety of species is not only about conserving food production and agriculture, there is also an ethical aspect. E O Wilson said: “mass extinction is the sin that future generations will least forgive us for”.
Charles David Keeling measured atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory starting in 1958 and showed that atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory rose from around 320 ppm in 1960 to around 400 ppm around 2015, with oscillations due to plant growth cycles around the year.
Regional disruptions to weather patterns within the next 20-30 years will aggravate pressures on food and water and engender migration
Under “business as usual” scenarios we can’t rule out, later in the century, really catastrophic warming, and tipping points triggering long-term trends like the melting of the Greenland’s icecap
Science, economics, ethics, and our responsibility for future generations should we discriminate on the grounds of date of birth?
Some economists apply quasi-commercial discounting of the future, and essentially write off anything beyond 2050, see Bjørn Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus:
Economists Stern and Weizman argue that it is worth paying an insurance premium to protect future generations against worst-case scenarios, see the Stern Review.
Note that there are psychological factors: people generally don’t accept discounting the future where radioactivity is concerned: radioactive waste disposal is required to prevent leakage for 10,000 years.
The ethical question is: should we discriminate based on the date of birth?
Global warming: do we have a plan B?
CO2 levels will continue to rise, despite the Paris agreement. Pressure for panic measures might rise.
Geo-engineering measures (injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to cool the climate, carbon capture etc) are discussed, but are likely to lead to political nightmares: e.g. some cold areas in the world might actually want the climate to be warmer in their areas.
Two mitigation measures are politically realistic:
Energy efficiency (building insulation, lighting etc)
R&D into low carbon energy generation: renewables, grid technology, energy storage…
Bio risks and “gain of function”
“Gain of function”: in 2012 groups in Wisconsin and in Holland showed that it was relatively easy to make the influenza virus more virulent and more contagious, in 2014 the US Government decided to stop funding such “gain of function” experiments.
“Bio-hacking” is hard to control globally. Freeman Dyson asked, when children will be able to create new organisms and “play God on the kitchen table”.
Robotics and artificial intelligence
20 years ago IBM’s Deep Blue beat Kasparov, programmed by the world’s best chess players.
Last year Deep Mind (acquired by Google) beat the world champion of Go, however programed by machine learning.
Will robots and AI create more new employment than they eliminate – the old question of industrial revolutions, or a new paradigm?
Robots and AI machines could act orthogonal to the interests of human.
Are we responsible for the well being of intelligent robots?
Ray Kurzweil’s singularity. Ending your days in an English churchyard vs in a Californian refrigerator
Ray Kurzweil thinks that humans could transcend our biological limitations by fusing with machines. Humans could merge with computers.
For worry that this “singularity” transition might not come during his lifetime, Ray Kurzweil wants his body to be frozen to await the singularity to arrive, frozen by the “Society for the abolition of involuntary death”.
Lord Martin Rees prefers to end his days in an English churchyard rather than a Californian refrigerator, and has therefore been labeled an old fashioned “deathist”.
Lord Rees was amused to find out that at least three British academics are subscribing such a body freezing program, although one of these seems to have opted for the discount economy class option, where only the brain, not the whole body, is frozen…
Robots have a big future in space
Flotillas of miniaturized probes will explore the solar system eroding the case for human space flight.
Human space flight will be for adventurers, but there is no escape from earth. Space is too hostile for humans.
Life on other planets – we don’t even know how life started on our planet earth
There is no advanced life anywhere in our solar system. There might be freeze-dried bacteria on Mars, there might be creatures swimming under the ice on Saturn’s moon Enceladus.
Most stars in the sky are orbited by planets, like our Sun. Could there be “twins” with similar conditions as our planet earth? Some have been found, and there could be millions in our Milky Way.
Could there be life?
We don’t even know how life started on our planet earth, and we don’t know if there are other forms of life beyond our life based on DNA/RNA chemistry.
Searching for signals from life on far away planets is worthwhile. If we can actually identify such signals this would prove that mathematics, logic and physics can be done by others outside our human sculls and brains.
We may not even be at the half-way stage of evolution.
Our wet organic brains may have reached close to their limits in evolution, but machines and robots are just at the beginning. Non-biological “brains” may develop beyond any expectation.
Facing global challenges
The most important challenges are global: global warming, energy, food, population.
Scientists can act globally, and can influence politics- if they do it right.
We need to change priorities and perspectives: we need to prioritize clean energy, sustainable agriculture, and need to manage the risks of new technologies.
Lord Martin Rees, former Master of Trinity College, Lecture “The world in 2050 – and beyond”Lord Martin Rees, former Master of Trinity College, Lecture “The world in 2050 – and beyond”
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